Nigel Arnell, professor of climate system science at the University of Reading told a Science and Media Centre briefing that all evidence from the climate models and projections suggests heatwaves are going to get worse and more frequent.

He said:

","elementId":"80c49dd1-782c-44ac-a4ce-be61ae1326d4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
n

The way we’re dealing with heatwaves at the moment essentially is to implement our emergency plans, which may or may not be very effective - we won’t know until Tuesday afternoon.

n

We really need to up the game in terms of adaptation and resilience in the UK and in other countries.

n

And there are a number of things that we can do based on what we’ve learned over the last few years of working on this.

n

One is that we need to make sure that all the new infrastructure that we’re currently building, the 40 new hospitals and so on, are designed to cope with the extremes that we’re definitely going to see.

n
","elementId":"9bd14fad-cc28-418d-a4c4-f262f75ec290"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

He added that as well as improving infrastructure for the future, upgrades to existing infrastructure need to be done with future temperatures in mind, for example using heat resistant rails for trains.

","elementId":"9ecdf4ee-88e6-4b8c-98cf-423683a19687"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
n

There are slightly different infrastructure standards based on what we’re used to.

n

The problem with this, of course, is that conditions are changing, and what we’re seeing now is conditions increasingly frequently outside the design conditions for what we’ve been used to and we’ve seen it in the railway and we’ve seen it on the roads.

n

So it’s this combination of when there’s an upgrade, when they are resurfacing a road, think about the longer term and what asphalt mixes and so on are needed.

n
","elementId":"f495a805-5fe5-45ac-9186-9e46ac2620fc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"

He said that it was also important to have emergency plans in place so that things do not “collapse completely” until upgrades are implemented. Reasonable responses “become more difficult to justify if we have to do them all the time, and then that’s when we need to start thinking about rebuilding bits of infrastructure”.

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Speed restrictions are being put in place on key rail routes in Scotland following the amber weather warning of extreme heat on Monday and Tuesday.

Network Rail confirmed train speeds would be restricted between 1pm and 8pm on Monday, which will have an impact on most routes, with a 20mph speed restriction on the stretch of rail between Hyndland and Finnieston in Glasgow, which is thought to be the busiest route in Scotland.

It comes after the Met Office issued an amber weather warning for Monday and Tuesday in eastern, southern and central parts of Scotland, where some temperatures are expected to exceed 30C.

Network Rail tweeted:

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n

We will be implementing further speed restrictions between 13:00-20:00 today. These restrictions will impact most train routes during the warmest part of the day, helping to minimise potential damage caused by todays forecasted temperatures.

n
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Restrictions will be in place between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh Waverley; Dumfries and Carlisle as well as Glasgow Queen Street and Aberdeen; Inverness; Oban and Fort William and Edinburgh Waverley and North Berwick, with delays of around 10 minutes expected, according to the ScotRail website.

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Speed restrictions imposed on trains amid fears of rails buckling in the heat could more than double journey times for passengers, the chief spokesman for Network Rail has said.

Kevin Groves told Sky News that trips which typically take two hours could take “more than four hours” as emergency measures have been brought in to prevent trains derailing.

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He said:

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n

Certainly later on today that (buckling) is a strong possibility, which is why, from about midday today through till 8pm tonight, there will be large swathes of England and Wales that will have emergency heat-related speed restrictions placed on the rail network.

n

Our advice to passengers if they can, today and tomorrow, is only travel if it’s really necessary; otherwise try and shift your arrangements to later in the week and you’ll get a full refund.

n
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The “crumbling” NHS estate is full of buildings that cannot adapt to the challenges of the heatwave, the chief executive of NHS Confederation has said.

Matthew Taylor told Sky News the health service will “pull out all the stops” to keep running over the coming days but warned that ongoing “capacity issues” will make it harder to bounce back.

He said:

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n

We’ve been given advice in the NHS, we’ll do all that we can, but the problem is this is about resilience, isn’t it?

n

The NHS has [...] got an estate that is crumbling, so many are not the kind of buildings that have got the adaptability to these kinds of challenges.

n

We’ll do our best but, as we learned during Covid, what’s really important is that we have resilient public services that have the capacity to respond to problems like this, and the NHS will absolutely pull out all the stops and will do all it can, but to be truly resilient we have to address those capacity issues.

n
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The chief executive of the Met Office confirmed “we may well see the hottest day in the UK in history” on Monday, but Tuesday is expected to be even hotter, with some forecasts estimating highs of 43C (109F).

Prof Penelope Endersby told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

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n

We think today we may well see the hottest day in the UK in history, with the hottest temperatures in the south-east, but actually the highest temperatures we expect tomorrow, and those temperatures will be further north as that warm air pushes north. So it’s tomorrow that we’re really seeing the higher chance of 40 degrees and temperatures above that.

n

Even possibly above that … 41 isn’t off the cards. We’ve even got some 43s in the model but we’re hoping it won’t be as high as that.

n

Well, we certainly don’t see these very hot temperatures persisting past Tuesday, so we’re expecting a big drop in temperature, mercifully, overnight into Wednesday – down 10 or 12 degrees on what it has been the days before.

We are still seeing hotter than average in our three-month outlook and also very dry, and our attention is turning, once we’re past these two days, to drought and when we might see any rain, and we’re not seeing any significant rain coming up.

n
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Jake Kelly, spokesperson for Network Rail, has warned that services returning to normal on Wednesday “will depend on the damage that the weather does to the infrastructure” over the course of Monday and Tuesday.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Kelly said:

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n

Our advice very strongly to customers in England and Wales today and tomorrow is to only travel if absolutely essential, and to expect a very reduced train service and delays.

n

And of course, as your listeners were hearing, on the East Coast mainline, that’s the route from London to destinations like Peterborough, Leeds and York, tomorrow, unfortunately, there won’t be a train service and passengers should not travel.

n

We haven’t taken any of those decisions lightly, but we’ve not been faced with these exceptional temperatures before.

n

We’re spending hundreds of millions of pounds a year on making the railway more resilient but ultimately faced with weather like we’ve never faced before, the infrastructure will suffer so we’ve had to put in place arrangements.

n

We hope and expect to run a full service on Wednesday and beyond, but that will depend on the damage that the weather does to the infrastructure over the next couple of days. We have lots of plans in place to make sure that we can run.

n
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Cabinet minister Kit Malthouse spoke about the UK government’s plans for the heat on this morning’s broadcast rounds.

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He told LBC Radio “people should do the neighbourly thing” and check on elderly people living nearby to “check they are OK, they’ve got access to water, they are keeping themselves cool and looking after themselves”.

There was likely to be “significant disruption” on the transport network and people should “think about working from home” if they are able to, he added.

He defended the government’s response, saying the Cobra meetings “make sure we are prepared and we are then able to communicate a sensible public safety message”.

He said it was a “very unfair criticism” to attack Boris Johnson for not attending the Cobra meetings on the heatwave. He said it was “literally my job” to chair Cobra, and Johnson “appoints secretaries of state to do this kind of work and that’s what I’ve been doing”.

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The prime minister was at his country retreat Chequers over the weekend where he hosted a party for friends.

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Malthouse said France had a heatwave in 2003 and “thousands of elderly people did die” so the UK could “learn from that. We are not used to this kind of heat and we just need to make sure that we are sensible and moderate and take care during the next 48 hours”.

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Good morning.

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The UK is gearing up for its hottest ever day, with temperatures forecast to exceed 40C. The high temperatures are set to remain for the next two days, causing widespread disruption, as passengers are urged not to travel by train, since rails may buckle in the heat, and some schools will close.

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The UK Health Security Agency has put in place its first ever level four heat warning to communicate to the public the danger posed by sustained high temperatures, meaning “illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups”.

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The UK, and other European countries, have been seeing heatwaves with record-breaking temperatures regularly over the past few years. Scientists have said the link between climate change extreme heatwaves is now clear.

I’ll be keeping you updated on all the latest disruption, alongside weather analysis and tips on staying cool for the rest of the day. Please do get in touch if there’s anything happening in your local area, or you’ve spotted something we’ve missed – you can reach me at [email protected].

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The key events:

Heat waves will get worse and become more frequent, climate expert says

Nigel Arnell, professor of climate system science at the University of Reading, told a Science and Media Center briefing that all the evidence from climate models and projections suggests that heat waves will get worse and become more frequent.

He said:

The way we deal with heat waves at the moment is basically to implement our contingency plans, which may or may not be very effective – we won’t know until Tuesday afternoon.

We really need to up the game in terms of adaptation and resilience in the UK and other countries.

And there are a number of things we can do based on what we’ve learned over the last few years of working on this.

First, we have to make sure that all the new infrastructure we are building now, the 40 new hospitals, etc., are designed to deal with the extremes that we are sure to see.

He added that in addition to improving infrastructure for the future, upgrades to existing infrastructure must be made with consideration for future temperatures, such as using heat-resistant rails for trains.

There are slightly different infrastructure standards depending on what we are used to.

The problem with that, of course, is that conditions change, and what we’re seeing now are conditions more and more often outside the design conditions for what we’ve been used to and we’re we have seen in the railroad and we have seen on the roads.

So it’s this combination of when there’s an upgrade, when they’re resurfacing a road, think longer term and what mixes of asphalt and so on are needed.

He said it’s also important to have contingency plans in place so things don’t “completely fall apart” until upgrades are implemented. Reasonable answers “become harder to justify if we have to do them all the time, and that’s when you have to start thinking about rebuilding pieces of infrastructure.”

The Met Office warns that the strong sunlight results in high to very high UV levels nationwideand encouraging people to protect their skin if they spend time outdoors.

Levels will hit 8 in the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday, which Cancer Research describes as “very high exposure” and says skin protection is needed for all skin tones.

Strong sunshine and high to very high UV levels in much of the country 🌞 So remember to protect your skin if you spend time outdoors.

🟥 Very high
🟧 Top
🟨 Moderate pic.twitter.com/BqCrClA5AB

— Met Office (@metoffice) July 18, 2022

Heat waves are a hazard to everyone and it’s a “flavor of what’s to come”, says a climatologist at the University of Reading.

“Heat waves are a silent killer” Hannah Cloke told BBC News on Monday. “There is a great danger for everyone.”

While experts knew the heat wave was coming and were able to issue warnings, Clock said they hadn’t had a chance to make sure people lived in the right types of buildings, provide cooling spaces, or make sure the general population knew what to do.

Clock said:

We probably have to treat heat waves and things like flooding a bit more like house fires. We probably need to think about practicing in peacetime when something bad isn’t happening, so people know what to do.

Practicing as if it were a fire drill would provide the knowledge needed to stay safe, Cloke said. Future solutions, she added, include shading buildings, installing shutters and using trees and water in our cities.

Record temperatures expected across the UK are ‘not normal’ for the city or country, said London Mayor Sadiq Khan, calling the 40C forecast “one of the consequences of climate change”.

Speaking to Sky News from City Hall, Khan added “none of those running to be the next Prime Minister seem to care about this issue”.

Khan said we are not ready, prepared or used to these temperatures, while warning people to be careful.

We have to adapt now because I fear this will become the norm rather than the exception.

The extreme heat that swept across much of the UK on Monday and Tuesday was ‘extremely rare’ before significant human emissions of greenhouse gasess, said Ben Clarke, PhD researcher in extreme weather attribution at the University of Oxford. He added that it has been done at least 10 times more likely over the past 20 years.

At the latest Science Media Center briefing, clark added:

Because climate change has raised the temperatures that people are experiencing by several degrees, there are sure to be many who will face health complications and even die as a direct result of climate change during this event. The death toll from recent heat waves has been in the hundreds to over 2000, showing that we are still unprepared for such events. The groups most at risk are the elderly, people with persistent cardiovascular disease and city dwellers.

Temperatures are rising rapidly across the country, according to the Met Office.

At 10 a.m. it was already above 30C in Surrey. Here’s a look elsewhere:

Writer, Essex 29.8C
Manston, Kent 29.5C
Heathrow 29.4C
Odiham, Hampshire 29.4C
Santon Downham, Suffolk 29.4C

Bill McGuire

A powerful paper communicating what 40C temperatures in the UK say about climate breakdown written by Emeritus Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at UCL, Bill McGuire, warns that “we are now firmly on the right track. way to Britain”.

He writes:

Just three years ago the mercury hit 38.7C (101.7F) in Cambridge – then an all-time record. A year later, British Met Office meteorologists simulated a weather forecast for 2050showing temperatures above 40C across much of the UK.

But the speed of climate degradation is such that this future is already in front of us. The Met Office’s first-ever red extreme heat warning comes into force for much of England on Monday, as fierce temperatures of over 40C threaten to overwhelm ambulance services and A&E services, and could result in thousands of deaths.

McGuire paints a terrifying picture of what the UK will look like in the future – extremely hot summers and searing droughts followed by torrential downpours will lead to food shortages and a deterioration in health services.

He urges:

Be afraid, but don’t let that fuel inertia. Instead, channel the emotion and use it to launch your contribution to the fight against the climate emergency. Things are going to be terrible, but – working together – we still have time to prevent a dangerous future from becoming cataclysmic.

Officers search for a missing 13-year-old who got into trouble in a river near OvinghamNorthumberland, found a body, Northumbria Police said.

Northumbria Police say the teenager’s body was found following an extensive search by the force’s marine unit.

A spokesperson said on Twitter:

Unfortunately, a body has since been found in the water. Formal identification has not yet taken place, but we believe it is the missing boy. It’s a tragic update that we hoped we would never have to give. His family is supported by officers and our thoughts are with them at this terrible time.

Experts have warned of the dangers of jumping into open water to cool off. They may contain hidden hazards such as weeds or strong currents, and there may be a risk of injury or hazards from boats.

Also, the water can be much colder than expected, leading to cold water shockan incapacitating condition that can lead to heart attacks and drowning.

“All of this can happen very quickly: it only takes half a liter of seawater to enter the lungs for an adult male to start drowning,” notes the RNLI.

Here is the UK weather map this morning at 10am from BBC Weather.

Temperatures are rising rapidly amid strong sunshine across much of the country, with the highest reaching nearly 30C in southeast Englandalthough clouds over northern Scotland and Northern Ireland keep things a little cooler.

The Met Office chief executive said that while extreme temperatures remain “rare”, by 2100, temperatures like those expected this week could be seen in the UK as frequently as once every three years as a result of climate change.

Professor Penelope Endersby told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

These temperatures are unattainable in the UK without climate change, they just don’t show up in the sets at all.

They are still rare in today’s warmed climate of 1.1 to 1.2 degrees, but by 2100 we expect them to be between one in 15 and one in three, depending on the emission paths that we will take until then.

We will definitely have to make changes to our infrastructure, transportation, hospitals, healthcare, homes, all those sorts of things, as well as our house building designs.

So yes, we need to make short-term changes for things like cooling centers and then longer-term changes, as well as assuming the very good progress we’ve already made as a nation towards net zero.

Scotland imposes speed restrictions on train tracks

Speed ​​restrictions are in place on major rail routes in Scotland following the orange weather alert for extreme heat on Monday and Tuesday.

Network Rail has confirmed train speed will be restricted between 1pm and 8pm on Monday, which will impact most routes, with a 20mph speed restriction on the section of railway between Hyndland and Finnieston at Glasgow, which is considered Scotland’s busiest route.

It comes after the Met Office issued an orange weather warning for Monday and Tuesday in eastern, southern and central Scotland, where some temperatures are expected to exceed 30C.

Network Rail tweeted:

We will be putting new speed restrictions in place between 1:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. today. These restrictions will impact most train routes during the hottest part of the day, helping to minimize potential damage from the temperatures forecast today.

Restrictions will be in place between Glasgow Central and Edinburgh Waverley; Dumfries and Carlisle as well as Glasgow Queen Street and Aberdeen; Inverness; Oban and Fort William and Edinburgh Waverley and North Berwick, with delays of around 10 minutes expected, according to the ScotRail website.