BOSTON (CBS) — One day closer to the Boston Marathon and confidence is growing that the weather will likely cooperate.
We are certainly in an active weather pattern with multiple storms targeting New England in the 10 day week. But for now, it looks like we’ll be between thunderstorms next Monday.
It is important to note that “confidence increases” does not mean that changes cannot occur. It’s just an indication that we’re seeing pretty good pattern agreement and consistency in the middle time frame (around Marathon Monday).
As we get closer to Monday, we can start to cross some concerns off the list.
At the time of this writing, I’d say with confidence that we can safely rule out a hot day. Much of the eastern half of the United States will enter a 6-10 day period of near to below average temperatures, starting on Easter Sunday.
The average high for April 18 (marathon day) in Boston is 58 degrees. If I was a bettor, I’d put my money on the “minus”, which means the highs are more likely to stay below 58 degrees on Monday than to rise above.
The heart of the cold will be centered in the Upper Midwest early next week. Much of this area (west of New England) will be between 10 and 15 degrees below normal temperatures. We will be on the edge of the cold air mass and are more likely to have an average of about 5 degrees below average.
So taken literally, if our average Monday high is 58 and we estimate 5 degrees below average, then our high for the day would be 53 degrees. Seems reasonable at this point, I was expecting 50-55 right now.
WHAT ABOUT RAIN?
One day there was about a 20% chance of rain on Marathon Monday, later in the day towards the end of the race. Since Tuesday, those odds have diminished.
I would put the chance of rain on Monday below 10% from now on. Again, six days from now and things could change, but at least we’re headed in the right direction. The trend is our friend! Chances of rain become much higher on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
After a lively Easter Sunday, the winds are expected to ease as Monday approaches. The odds favor a northwesterly wind early in the day, typically 5-10 MPH. On the contrary, I think the winds will become even lighter during the day as a weak area of high pressure passes.
At this point I was expecting light and variable winds on Monday overall. They can shift from near-calm northwesterly to a slight southerly or southeasterly in the afternoon. Again, probably a bit too much detail this far. The conclusion here is that winds are probably not a factor for runners or spectators.
So, in conclusion, things look positive!
We should start the day with some sunshine, but the clouds will tend to increase as the day progresses. Mostly high, cirrus clouds coming out ahead of the next storm system.
Temperatures will start in the upper 30s at dawn, rise to the 40s in the morning and peak in the 50s to 55s at noon and afternoon. Not much difference from place to place.
You can watch live coverage of the 126th Boston Marathon on WBZ-TV and CBS Boston.com on Monday, April 18, 2022.
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ