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Afternoon update: chances of showers and storms increase ahead of a hotter night

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West of town along the Appalachians, a light handful of showers and a few thunderstorms are slowly moving east. If they hold together, they may not arrive until nightfall. The main chance streak of showers and storms are more likely to concentrate closer to sunrise and into noon tomorrow as our next cold front moves in.

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Until tonight : Clouds will continue to rise and any gusty breezes will diminish. The chance of showers and storms will increase slowly but not too much until sunrise. Any rain should be fairly brief. Dew points slowly rising to nearly 70 degrees will give us that sticky feeling. Low temperatures can only drop to around 70 degrees in the mid-70s. Whew.

To see the current weather at the Washington Post.

Tomorrow (Monday): Chances of severe storms at this time seem unlikely, but a gust of wind in one or two storms cannot be ruled out. A heavy downpour is a very light secondary threat, with generally light amounts of rain expected – around a tenth of an inch. Overall, the greatest chance of rain can be concentrated around sunrise and into mid-morning. It may take until early afternoon for cloud levels and chance of rain to drop enough for us to dry out.

Temperatures remain a bit uncertain. We will probably enter the 80s, but if we eliminate earlier than expected, the upper 80s are on the table. More cloudy, more rainy in the afternoon? This can top us out in the 80s. Moderate westerly-northwesterly breezes are possible, some of which can also create a warming “downslope” effect off the mountains. Confidence is average at best, though.

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Low risk of severe storms tonight through tomorrow

So far so good on the weather side, as our next cold front will move through tomorrow morning until noon.

Yes, a few places could see a heavy downpour around sunrise until the wee hours of the morning, but the instability accompanying this cold front should keep instances of heavy to severe storms very sporadic – if any. This is a good time to get a lot of the cold front energy through before the sun rises.

A downdraft gust from a thunderstorm is the main threat, but it is very light.

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